Statoil launches its "Energy Perspectives" report describing the long-term macroeconomic and market outlook based on studies conducted by Statoil's in-house analysis team.

The report sees global primary energy demand growing by 40% by 2040. Growth will mainly come from non-OECD countries, where energy demand will rise by more than 60% by 2040.

Economic growth fuelled by energy availability, globalisation of trade, improved institutional frameworks and democracy is leading to a large number of people in emerging economies gradually and substantially improving their living conditions and becoming part of a global middle class.

"Economic development will continue to drive energy demand, and energy is a prerequisite for economic growth," says Statoil chief economist Eirik Wærness.

Annual global economic growth is projected to average 2.8% over the next three decades. This is in line with the growth of the past 20 years. Emerging economies are expected to continue to lead the way, with non-OECD growing at 4.5% on average per year and OECD at 1.9%. Statoil emphasises the uncertainty connected with any long-term outlook.

Demand increasing for all energy sources

Demand is projected to increase for all energy sources, but with substantial variation, ranging from 0.5% growth per year (oil) to 8.9% (new renewables). As a result of climate and environmental policies and cost improvements, new renewables are expected to increase market share from around 1% to almost 8%. Fossil fuels will continue to supply 72.5% of total primary energy demand in 2040.

Demand for oil will grow less than demand for other energy sources, but is seen to rise by 15 million barrels per day by 2040 to around 100 million barrels per day. The report expects natural gas to become an increasingly important fuel in the next decades.

"With maturation of the world's largest oil and gas fields, this raises major challenges in terms of stemming decline and replacing current production," says Wærness.

The long-term trend of improving energy efficiency, as measured by energy use per unit of GDP, is expected to continue. Globally, Statoil expects an improvement in energy efficiency of some 35% from today's level.

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