Commentary, 11/12, 2003

The Waiting Game
With the release of the Norwegian Parliament White Paper number 38 (2001-2002) came a provocative chart showing two possible scenarios for the next 50 years of oil and gas production on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). The “gradual disintegration scenario” shows a plunging line from a little over 250 million Sm3 oe down to under 50 by 2030 and to approximately 10 by 2050. In opposition, the “long-term development scenario” is more positive, with almost 150 million Sm3 oe 50 years on. It’s a dramatic “either – or” look into the future, and it begs the question as to which we prefer. The chart is meant to inspire, but it is troubling. Why do we need to look at NCS activities this way?