The recession is not over and the numbers of cancelled new-build ships could reach over 30 percent, a conference of ship finance in Oslo heard on Wednesday.

“Some believe the financial crisis is over. Well, let me tell you it is not,” Nordea Bank’s shipping and oil services boss Carl Steen told the Tradewinds Oslo Shipping Forum.

His grim, financier’s take on the finance shortage comes from the world’s fourth largest “shipping bank”.

“I’m not sure (classification society’s are) doing too much business lately,” he said. As for bail-outs: he said he couldn’t see national government’s spending the public trust on global shipping for much longer.

Steen’s remarks for the market were preceded by those of Norway’s State Secretary for Trade, Rikke Lind. Her “modest” forecast of 30 percent new-build cancellations would probably prove low, Steen said, his remarks drying the mouths of speechless brokers accustomed to studying Norway’s offshore fleet, the world’s second largest.

Steen said the banks were still reeling from their exposure to bad loans in the United States, and stimulus-era interest rates were so low, that the bank’s raw material of customer deposits were increasingly being put into bonds. The trend means global lending is down 40 percent, and the slump hit has even hit oil-rich Oslo, “capital of world shipping finance” and the German banks that dominate global shipping.

“What’s going to happen? It can be very nasty,” Steen said, hinting of “Big Time” cancellations of new-builds, “Simply because there’s not finance available.”

He and other presenters lightened the gloom by saying equity financing was on the rise. One speaker predicted the next “few weeks” would “several” shipping company share issues.

“For completely new projects, finance is particularly challenging,” said Seadrill financier and Ship Finance Management chief exec Lars Solbakken. With $13 billion in long-term work with oil companies in place, the Seadrill bond is “particularly attractive” right now. Yields on the note have reached over 15 percent.

Clarkson Research Services chief exec, Martin Stopford, warned the new-build projects of some other companies have no milestone payment guarantees, and were now causing problems. He cautioned some company backlogs contained up to 40 percent of projects that might not be financed.

While talking ships, generally, Stopford said there was “nothing new” in the current “shipping recession” now underway. Shipping cycles of the same magnitude can be traced back as far as the 18th century or as recently as the early 1970s: crisis has followed unprecedented order booms or long periods of “too few newbuilds”.

“But many have thrived on shipping recessions,” Stopford said, adding, "And they continue to thrive."