courtesy Risk Intelligence

Somali pirates have launched 135 attacks in 2009 on ships braving the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Aden, in contrast to the handful of attacks that make the news, a company that counsels shipping companies on risk has revealed.

One projection suggests Somali attacks tankers could reach 314 by year-end.

Crude oil tankers have become the favorite prey for the opportunistic ransom hunters in open ocean, while slow-moving seismic vessels are easy targets off Nigeria.

The shocking attack numbers — higher than the 111 attacks reported by the International Maritime Bureau — come from the analysts at Risk Intelligence, a company increasingly popular with governments, insurers and the oil and gas industry supply chain, especially the owners and operators of offshore service and survey fleets.

“Somali pirates are also risk averse,” managing director Hans Tino Hansen told a small room of journalists at Norway’s Nor-Shipping Expo. “The crew is the main bargaining chip. They do not shoot to kill the crew.

But while Somali pirates might use to rocket-propelled grenades to stop the ship with a shot across the bow and keep crew heads down with bursts of gunfire, the rules change offshore Nigeria.

“In Nigeria they use firepower in another way,” said Hansen, adding that while he recommends seismic vessels have armed guards, it’s important they are not aboard the vessel. While the government demands armed crew are Nigerian Armed Forces, “If you have them on deck, (the gunmen) will start shooting at you.”

“Nigerian nationals can switch hats and be (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta) insurgents one day and robbers the next,” Hansen added. In either case, government troops tend to draw fire.

Risk Intelligence leadership like to quote Lars Paalsson, head of security for Stena, an operator of rigs and cargo vessels. His analysis says 95 percent of staying safe is intelligence, five percent by weaponry, the ease of climbing aboard a vessel and a ship’s evasiveness, as with the faster ships.

For intelligence, the company points to its MaRisk Web-based analysis, part of a consulting package it offers oil companies that includes contingency planning. It costs oil companies €6,000 to €7,000 for the service, but oil companies are among the growing client list.

Shipping companies pay from DAK30,000 to DAK75,000 ($ to $) for the life-saving analysis. MaRisk features maps of recent attacks and breaks down their severity with color-coded symbols and analytical text.

A look at the map revealed attacks on tankers by Somali pirates now happen well out into the Eastern Indian Ocean, where the Indian Navy has been criticized for its approach to piracy. Recently, a Thai fishing trawler was hijacked by Somali pirates intent on using it as a mother ship.

The pirates and the luckless Thai crew were understood to have been blown out of the water by the Indian gunners.

The intelligence is intended to avoid such encounters while international governments and their armed forces tackle the pirates. In the meantime, RI leadership advises against the use of run-of-the-mill security contractors onboard.

A surge in piracy in 2008 which coincided with the end of monsoon weather saw a mushrooming of ship-security companies. Some turned out to be “cowboy” companies released from Iraq and prone to shooting at trawlers in water where local authorities have adequate control of piracy.

“Security contractors have to have years of experience and service at sea,” Hansen said.

Meanwhile, attacks at sea are seen intensifying soon in the Indian Ocean, as a four month season of bad weather — whether that favors the defense of a ship — comes to an end.

Off Nigeria, meanwhile, where near shore attacks can unfold in minutes (as opposed to days on the ocean), 133 attacks were reported in 2008 and so far 140 this year.

“The attacks will continue as long as you have socio-political unrest based on a perceived misdistribution of oil revenues,” he said.

Correction: We erroneously reported Mr. Hansen suggesting a "military solution" might be necessary in Nigeria. He did not

Tags: Risk Intelligence